Olive Oil prices: a climate change & inflation barometer

Olive Oil prices: a climate change & inflation barometer

  • Food & Drink
Dahye Lee 
Davide Berretta 

21st August 2024

 

Around the world, food is getting more and more expensive: but nowhere is this clearer than with olive oil, and consumers are taking note.  

A pantry staple with growing global appeal, audiences are starting to associate olive oil more with sticker shock than with health benefits, mediterranean lifestyle, and generous drizzles over salad…  

.. and in the context of the global inflation-driven cost-of-living crisis, "liquid gold" is to be discussed, and perceived, as almost a luxury good.

Using Pulsar TRAC, we explored the global conversation surrounding olive oil by analyzing X, Threads, TV, Radio, Print News, Online News and Amazon Reviews from recent months to see how the olive oil conversation is evolving, what concerns are driving audience interest, and how it's shifting broader consumer behaviors. 

Broadly, olive oil social and search interest is trending upwards, and mapping it against olive oil’s EU inflation rates shows us how the spiking prices are highly correlated and suggest that's what's driving the largest audience interest spike at the end of 2023. Other angles, such as the EU’s new regulations against deceptive olive oil labels, also contributed to conversation revolving around quality, purity, and comparisons with other vegetable oils (which is a top concern for one community in particular).


Throughout though, shopping stories about the impact of these price changes on daily life amassed 4.7 million views on X alone.

And yet, this is not simply a conversation about grocery stores and cost of living. Audiences are interested in olive oil, and why it might have suddenly started to become less accessible to many.

When we break down the social dialogue from 2021 onward we can begin to discern how the main associations with olive oil have evolved over time.

Olive Oil Dimensions

Initially, from March 2021 to 2022, the olive oil conversation centered on both its role as a healthy superfood and recipes focused on well-being. Since February 2022, however, that audience focus shifted to inflation, as the Russia-Ukraine war worsened the global food crisis, and droughts and climate change came into focus as the main reason to be associated with the price hikes. 

This latter narrative was exemplified by this quote tweet explanation to one of the earlier posts, tying everyday observations to macro environmental concerns.

Because the origin and locality of olive oil remain significant to both consumers and producers, it's illustrative to break down the key narratives by region. We looked at a variety of countries, some of which are not only big consumption markets, but also producers (Italy, Spain).

When we dissect the narratives by region, it becomes manifest that mainly consumer countries (US, UK, Australia, Singapore) are fixated on food aspects of olive oil, whereas producer nations (Spain, Italy) concentrate more on inflationary pressures.

Spain, producing over 40% of the world’s olive oil, naturally experiences a more politically charged debate on this issue compared to other countries, given the importance of the This heightened debate reflects increasing public anxiety and skepticism about government actions, particularly in relation to how the new VAT exemption could affect olive oil prices.

In the UK, meanwhile, a significant consumer of European olive oil, we also see the foodstuff invoked - not because it is a key economic driver, but rather because it reflects broader economic discontent.

In contrast, the USA and Singapore’s significant focus on food suggests rising olive oil prices have not - yet - made the same kind of cultural impact. 

So, who are the people shaping the discussion on olive oil around the world?

We can see that the Spanish conversation around olive oil is highly polarized, with two separate communities actively criticizing and ridiculing government policiesm while a smaller segment of the olive oil industry weighs in from a producer's viewpoint.

The US conversation, on the other hand, is more varied, even featuring crypto bros who challenge perceptions of olive oil as healthy:

The UK is the only country where a cohesive community to environmentalists address climate-related impacts, highlighting how climate breakdown is causing difficulties in producing foods like olive oil and coffee.

Lastly, Australia, sitting pretty far from olive oil’s traditional cultivation centre, has seen its political leaders stir up the conversation. They’re pushing for homegrown olive oil production to tackle worries about supply shortages and amplifying buzz around alternative oils.

As we see, the narratives and regional attitudes towards olive oil are not consistent, but rather dependant on context. One feature that remains realtively consistent, however, is the displacement of 'origin' as a conversation driver, in favor of 'price'.  And this had led, in turn, to a sizeable number of consumers stating an openness to explore healthy and wallet-friendly alternatives, even if only until prices stabilize.

This shift is not always simple, however, with conflicting information - and even downright misinformation - impacting the search for alternatives amongst consumers.

Olive Oil Alternatives?
byu/mpp53 inCooking

Mixing up the form of the oil takes is another option for consumers - although not one that's been met with resounding positivity online.

Comment
byu/hullabalooser from discussion
inCooking

Olive oil provides, like avocados and cashews before it, a glimpse into the changing world of food and supply chains. As environmental and geopolitical stressors make it hard to maintain access to many popular foodstuffs, it's entirely likely that we'll see currently unheralded alternatives arise to take more prominent places within culture and behavior.


To stay up to date with our latest insights and releases, sign up to our newsletter below:



This article was created using data from TRAC

Spotlight