Using Pulsar to Estimate the Time for a Trend to become a Legend

When exactly will Carter get his nuggets? Not long, it seems…

One question is on course to beat the highest number of retweets ever, but more importantly, can it surpass 18 million? And can Carter finally get his year of chicken nuggets.

And one brand absolutely owning this is Wendy’s. From roasting Twitter followers, through to collaborating with popular YouTubers, Game Grumps, Wendy’s just gets social media.

In this latest tale, 16 year old Twitter user Carter Wilkinson, casually tweeted at Wendy’s asking what it would take to be blessed with a year of chicken ‘nuggs’.

Wendy’s replied with a daunting challenge.

With 319 million active users on Twitter monthly, that would mean that 5.6% of regular Tweeters would have to oblige Carter, and give him a helping hand in his pursuit of chicken.

But, just how long would this actually take?

Using Pulsar to Analyse the Details

Plugging this into tweet into Pulsar TRAC, we could see that within the first day, the tweet was retweeted 511,000 times, and gained a further 167,000 retweets the next day. We can also see who is Tweeting on the right-hand side of the graph.

The graph then begins to plateau as it decreases to 90,000 retweets, remains steady for two days and then gradually begins to slow. Surely this is the end right? No way 18 million could be reached?

Until the influencers notice….

Stupid stuff works. There’s no exact science to it – it’s simply audience intelligence at its finest. And thanks to this blooming popularity, Ellen DeGeneres noticed, as the tweet is on course to beat her Oscars Selfie as the most retweeted of all time. In response, Wendy’s reacted and created more buzz by issuing their own challenge to users.

Source: https://twitter.com/Wendys/status/852615184690622466

Source: https://cartervsellen.com/

But will it reach 18 million, and when?

So far, the tweet has been retweeted 643,527 times in the US alone.

This means that just over a fifth of the retweets came from the USA, whilst the rest of the world are backing this upstart and retweeting #NuggsForCarter. And to Carter’s advantage, Ellen’s tweet was centred around one night and had no goal attached to it – basically, Carter might just about manage it.

Just how long would this take?

At Pulsar, we have collected the data over the past month, taking into account the natural drop rate, and estimate that at this rate, Carter’s chicken dreams will come true by*:

21^st October, 2018

And that’s assuming that people don’t get bored, Carter isn’t hacked and the tweet remains intact. Carter’s well on his way to becoming the most retweeted tweet of all time… but 18 million is a pretty tall order.

10 characters ‘breaks Twitter’:

Make no mistake, the genius lies in the brilliance of Wendy’s. Essentially, they have broken Twitter by using one of their customers, with a marketing campaign that wasn’t planned months in advance, but with a 10-character reply. This may seem effortless and natural but what Wendy's understand, is how to effectively resonate with their audience.

Analysing data such as this however, allows you to not only estimate growth and potential milestones, but discover what type of content works best with your audience. All of which will naturally give you a direction where to focus your budget, strategy and creativity.

At Pulsar, we thrive on insight discovery - it simply starts with understanding your audience.

Get in touch with us now and become the next global trend through smart insights.

*Numbers based on average retweet rate of post, following the spike, then averaged, adjusted for peaks and troughs, and simplified. But basically, your guess is as good as ours.